| Greg's future of the Internet |
| signs of the times |
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
|
|
In February and March 2014 I participated in a Coursera course about the history of the Internet. One of the assignments was an essay on what the Internet might be like in 20 years' time. This page complements it: it's a list of occurrences confirming (or potentially contradicting) my predictions.
Woolworths are offering a pickup service for purchases on eBay. That makes sense for everybody.
There are a surprising number of shops for lease in Sturt Street, the main shopping area of Ballarat.
The Washington Post reports the demise of another retailer, Payless Shoes, which also (still) has an net presence in Australia, though it seems that it has closed down too. But at the same time it makes it clear that big retailers are also feeling the pinch.
Two identical paper mail letters today, from ANZ bank: they're closing their Sebastopol branch due to lack of interest, “Internet banking” being the stated culprit.
Today the Washington Post reported reported the shutdown of the last department store in Hermitage, PA. Hermitage has a population of about 15,000, and the nearest larger town is at least 50 km away. This will probably kill off the Shenango Valley Mall as well.
In passing, it's notable that the mall web site is at least 9 months out of date: it lists all three department stores that were there until March 2017, when Sears and Macy's closed down. Wouldn't you be happy if you went to a mall looking for one of three department stores, and found none at all?
Down through a shopping street in Geelong for the first time in a while. It showed the signs of the times: many unoccupied shops, including an entire arcade. Those shops that were occupied seemed to be hairdressers or restaurants, though there was one shop for bridal equipment. Admittedly, in my paper I didn't think specifically of hairdressers, but it matches my expectations.
Another sign of the times: the ANZ bank closed down its Sebastopol branch a few months ago, but left the ATM outside in operation, as this photo from Google maps shows:
No more:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
I can understand shutting down branches; that matches my predictions. But why remove the ATM? That doesn't match the expectations in my paper. Possibly it's a matter of property ownership, and they're planning a new ATM somewhere nearby. But why no sign to tell people what has happened, what is going to happen, and where the next ANZ ATM is? That smacks of stupidity.
I walked down Bridge Mall, the main shopping area in Ballarat. The place was nearly deserted, and in one area I saw three different shops for lease:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
In the essay, I wasn't sure about social networks (now called social media). I wrote:
How important will social networks be? Will they reach a plateau or even decline? Or will they continue to grow and form a significant part of social life?
The recent Facebook has been Cambridge Analytica breach may just be the tip of the iceberg. But Statista has done a statistic on public attitudes:
They, too, are looking into the future. It's also interesting that Amazon and Google are also perceived as net negative.
Seen in the mail today (https://www.statista.com/chart/14559/americans-favorite-tv-platforms/):
Even now, terrestrial broadcast TV only accounts for about 18% of TV viewing in the USA. The rest is delivered mainly by some kind of network connection, either Internet or cable.
That's one of the things I predicted:
Radio and TV broadcasts will gradually cease. They are costly: they use a lot of power, and transmission and reception equipment are also expensive. Even now it is possible to receive TV via the Internet: a recent report found that in Western countries, 90% of Internet users watched online video. Significant investment in net backbones will be required to deliver the content, but it will still be cheaper than maintaining current transmission equipment. This change in the distribution method will also allow video on demand to take the place of fixed broadcasts.
I didn't know about Netflix then, and I'm surprised how quickly it has taken the lead. But how long will it be before cable and terrestrial broadcast cease altogether? The difference in the usage of the 18-34 age group (then to be 34-50) suggests that it won't take long. I think I'm in good shape for my prediction to come true.
More indications of the demise of TV today, also from Statista. TV is being overtaken by Internet services:
Walked down the old Block Arcade today. It has been looking down-at-heel for some years now, and looks quite different from the photo they have on their home page:
In particular, the premises on the right are empty and to let, not the only one in the relatively short arcade; I'd guess that 40% of the premises are empty.
On through Myer, which has been looking in need of renovation for some years now, and in to Central Square It looks a lot better than the other two, but the writing is on the wall, literally. Coming in from the east, the place looks like this:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
What's in the food court? Nothing much, but I discovered one shop, rather more tastefully covered up than in Block Arcade:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
That's the white wall in the background, which should be selling some kind of food. It's not the only one in the panorama above: on the right, in what should be one of the best positions in the shopping centre, is this:
|
|
|||||||||
I've seen some of these shops change hands frequently, and I wonder if the current Flight Centre shop (barely visible on the left of the panorama) will last long. It's just surprising that even food courts have difficulties; the shops that are there don't look very exciting.
BBC are stopping broadcast of some of their channels; they'll only be available online, as this announcement states. That's in line with what I have been expecting.
I've already commented on the number of closed shops in Bridge Mall (which they seem to now be calling “The Bridge”), once the main shopping centre in Ballarat. But recently I heard that about 30% of all premises are vacant, and they have decided to overhaul it to make it a more pleasant shopping experience. It's difficult to find specifics, but the one big thing they're doing is to make it a thoroughfare again! Bridge Street again, no more Bridge Mall!
Is this progress? Everybody seems to claim that it's a Good Thing. How can traffic in a pedestrian area make shopping easier? It can't be to improve local traffic, which isn't really an issue at the moment.
It's not clear what role the Internet is playing here. Do they really think that opening to mall to traffic will improve the situation? I'd be less inclined to go there after such a change. So is there somebody out there with a longer term vision? If so, what is he/she thinking?
| Greg's home page | Greg's diary | Greg's photos | Copyright |
